Climate vulnerability · experimental scores
Climate vulnerability in Wales: Carmarthenshire
Who may be vulnerable to flooding, heat, drought, severe weather and other hazards, how able they are to respond, the places that look after them and the hazards themselves, from each council down to each of its small areas (2021 LSOAs; 111 here, 1,917 in Wales).
How the climate risk, exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity scores are worked out
Our own experimental scores, not official measures, following the tender's four parts: hazards and exposure (what is here), vulnerability (who lives here) and adaptive capacity (how able they are to respond). Each compares Wales's 1,917 small areas with each other, so a figure means the same in every view: 80 means more than about 80% of Wales's small areas.
- Each measure becomes a percentile within Wales: 0 for the lowest small area, 100 for the highest (for a WIMD rank, a lower rank is more deprived, so it is turned round). For a hazard, an area with none scores 0 and the areas with some are ranked from just above 0 to 100.
- Each score is the weighted average of its measures' percentiles. A measure not held for an area is left out, never counted as zero; an area needs enough of them (shown below) to have a score.
- Climate risk: exposure, vulnerability and low adaptive capacity together: the cube root of the three multiplied (their geometric mean), so an area scores high only when all three are high. A council's figure is the average of its small areas'.
- Scenarios change exposure, and so climate risk: Now (2001-2020 climate, present flood risk); 2°C of global warming (around the 2050s); 4°C of global warming (late century, high emissions). Flood is now the present-day risk, and with warming NRW's Flood Zone 3 with climate change; heat is the days over 30°C for each; summer drying counts only with warming.
Vulnerability
Who lives here: how many people may find heat, flooding or other hazards hard to cope with. At least 6 measures needed.
| Measure | Weight |
|---|---|
| WIMD 2025 overall deprivation (rank) | 1 |
| WIMD 2025 health deprivation (rank) | 1 |
| Aged 75 and over | 1 |
| One-person households aged 66 and over | 1 |
| Bad or very bad health | 1 |
| Disabled under the Equality Act | 1 |
| Households deprived in 3 or more dimensions | 1 |
| Cannot speak English well or at all | 1 |
Exposure
What is here: the hazards mapped in or around the small area, under the chosen scenario. An area with none of a hazard scores 0 for it; the areas with some are ranked from just above 0 to 100. At least 3 measures needed.
| Measure | Weight |
|---|---|
| Postcodes at flood risk from rivers or the sea: now, medium or high risk (NRW Flood Risk Assessment Wales); with warming, inside Flood Zone 3 with climate change (NRW Flood Map for Planning) | 2 |
| Postcodes at medium or high risk from surface water (NRW, once FloodRadar holds it) | 1 |
| Coal tips in the area, weighted by category (A 1, B 2, C 3, D 4, R 0.5) | 1 |
| Storm overflow spills in the area, 2025 | 1 |
| Days over 30°C a year for the area's neighbourhood: 2001-2020, or with 2°C or 4°C of warming (Met Office UKCP18) | 1 |
| Background NO2 (Defra's modelled 1 km grid, averaged over the area) | 0.5 |
| Road noise at the area's centre (Welsh Government noise map, 16-hour daytime level) | 0.5 |
| Drought now: the shortfall of the last 6 months' rainfall below the 1991-2020 normal for the council, from its rain gauges or else its Met Office area (FloodRadar); 0 at or above normal | 1 |
| Met Office severe weather warnings over the council since FloodRadar began keeping them (27 September 2026), yellow 1, amber 2, red 3 | 1 |
| Summer drying: the fall in summer rainfall for the area's neighbourhood with 2°C or 4°C of warming (Met Office UKCP18; not counted now) | 1 |
Low adaptive capacity
How hard it would be to respond, cope and recover: distance to help, car access and income. Higher means less able to adapt. At least 4 measures needed.
| Measure | Weight |
|---|---|
| Minutes to a GP by bus or train, there and back (Welsh Government, WIMD access indicators) | 1 |
| Minutes to a pharmacy by bus or train, there and back | 1 |
| Minutes to a food shop by bus or train, there and back | 1 |
| Households without a car or van | 1 |
| WIMD 2025 income deprivation (rank) | 1 |
| WIMD 2025 access to services (rank) | 1 |
Limits: equal weights are a choice, not evidence; health, disability and deprivation move together, so that pattern counts more than once; flood shares count postcodes (about 15 homes each) inside Natural Resources Wales's extents, from FloodRadar's copy; coal tips and overflows count what lies inside the small area, not near it; heat and summer rainfall are the Met Office's figures for the area's neighbourhood (MSOA); road noise is read at each small area's centre (1917 of 1917 held so far); severe weather counts Met Office warnings since FloodRadar began keeping them (2026-09-27); drought now is each council's rainfall shortfall against normal (FloodRadar), by its gauges or else its Met Office area. The weights live in data/reference/climate-wales-index.json.
Map
Darker is more vulnerable or more exposed on every measure (for WIMD ranks, a lower rank). Measures marked by the scenario follow it. Click a small area for its figures. Coal tips by category: A yellow, B orange, C red, D dark red, R grey. Overflows sized by their spills in 2025.
Scores by council i
| Council | Climate risk now | at 2°C | at 4°C | Exposure (now) | Vulnerability | Low adaptive capacity | Small areas with climate risk 75+ (now) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 44.7 | 45.6 | 46.4 | 30.7 | 54.6 | 57.6 | 0 |
Each council's figure is the mean of its small areas' (percentiles within Wales). How they are worked out.
People who may be vulnerable
| Council | Residents | Small areas | In Wales's most deprived 10% / 20% | Aged 75 and over | One-person households aged 66 and over | Households without a car or van | Disabled under the Equality Act | Bad or very bad health | Provide unpaid care | Cannot speak English well or at all | Households deprived in 3 or more dimensions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 187,888 | 111 | 5 / 13 | 11.1% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 23.0% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 0.7% | 4.2% |
Census 2021 (ONS; age 75 and over, people aged 66 and over living alone, no car, bad health and English from the census tables we keep, disability, unpaid care and deprivation from Nomis; small areas added up; the denominators are each table's own: residents, households, residents aged 5+ for carers, aged 3+ for English). WIMD 2025 (Welsh Government, StatsWales): 1,917 small areas, the most deprived 10% ranked 1 to 192.
Health, care and access
| Council | GP practices (branches) | Care homes for adults (places) | Pharmacies | Hospitals with an emergency department | Schools | Asthma | COPD | Diabetes (17+) | Heart failure | High blood pressure | Coronary heart disease | Stroke and TIA | Dementia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 22 (10) | 101 (2,430) | 27 | 1 | 108 | 7.2% | 2.3% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 17.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
GP sites: Digital Health and Care Wales (DataMapWales, March 2026). Care homes: Care Inspectorate Wales registered services, 2025-26 (StatsWales). Pharmacies: OpenStreetMap. Hospitals and schools: our own tables (NHS Wales, Welsh Government). Disease prevalence: the Welsh Government's GP disease registers at 01/04/2025, the number on each register over the patients registered, for the practices matched by name (348 in Wales). Travel minutes to a GP, pharmacy and food shop, by small area, are on the map.
Health system pressure and change over time
How the services people turn to in an emergency are coping, how winter weighs on deaths and how flood exposure grows, for Carmarthenshire. Each line or bar is against Wales.
Hazards
| Council | Homes at high or medium flood risk, 2025 → 2120 | Coal tips (C or D) | River / rain gauges | Flood warnings / alerts since 2006 | Storm overflows | Spills 2025 (hours) | Days over 30°C a year: now → 2°C → 4°C | Tropical nights | Severe weather warnings (amber or red) | Drought now | Fuel poverty (2016) | Wildfires, Aug 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 5,703 → 10,130 | 0 (0) | 34 / 16 | 387 / 1,467 | 265 | 14,630 (139,413) | 1 → 1 → 9 | 0 → 0 → 2 | 3 (0) | 78% of normal (15 gauges) | 24.7% | 1 |
Homes at flood risk: the Welsh Government's residential properties at high or medium risk from rivers, the sea and surface water, with defences, 2025 and its 2120 forecast (StatsWales). Coal tips: Welsh Government register, March 2026 (A to D by inspection need; R recorded only). Gauges, flood warnings and overflows: FloodRadar's own copy of Natural Resources Wales's gauges and flood warning archive (each warning placed in its council by its point) and the water companies' storm overflow returns (a year without monitoring is left out, never 0); read 2026-11-06. Severe weather: Met Office Weather Warnings © Crown Copyright, as kept by FloodRadar. Every Met Office warning since 2026-09-27 (FloodRadar holds none before), counted in each council it covered; weather warnings, not flood warnings. Drought now: rainfall over the last 6 months against the 1991-2020 normal, from FloodRadar's drought feed: the median of the council's rain gauges with every month complete where it has two or more, else its Met Office area; Rainfall: Met Office HadUK-Grid areal series (monthly) and its 1991–2020 averages. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. How the drought figures are worked out, month by month, for Wales and each gauge: FloodRadar's rainfall page for Wales. Reservoir levels: Welsh Water, which supplies most of the region, has published none since 9 December 2024; the current Welsh figures (Hafren Dyfrdwy, and Severn Trent's Clywedog and Elan Valley) and the dated Welsh Water list are on FloodRadar's reservoirs page, and no reservoir figure is scored here. Heat: Met Office UKCP18 by council (our council figures' copy of the Climate Data Portal; medians; 2001-2020, then 2°C and 4°C of global warming above pre-industrial). Fuel poverty: the latest by council the Welsh Government publishes (2016). Wildfires: DataMapWales, August 2026. Each small area's share of postcodes at flood risk, and the substations' flood check: Flood extents: Contains Natural Resources Wales information © Natural Resources Wales and database right, as kept by FloodRadar.
Fires attended by Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All fires | 3,072 | 3,295 | 3,025 | 2,583 | 2,951 | 3,142 |
| Primary fires | 1,155 | 1,237 | 1,176 | 1,116 | 1,143 | 1,203 |
| Secondary fires | 1,790 | 1,928 | 1,733 | 1,377 | 1,708 | 1,841 |
| Dwelling fires | 577 | 619 | 566 | 540 | 554 | 528 |
| Outdoor fires | 1,905 | 2,034 | 1,830 | 1,448 | 1,773 | 1,964 |
StatsWales, fires attended by fire and rescue authority (none is published by council); the latest year is provisional.
Critical infrastructure
| Council | Primary substations | in medium or high flood risk now | in Flood Zone 3 with climate change | Distribution substations (pole-mounted) | Customers they serve | Heat pumps / EV chargers / solar connected | Hospitals with an emergency department | Schools |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 51 | 4 | 6 | 8,683 (7,987) | 88,123 | 1,241 / 1,275 / 5,605 | 1 | 108 |
National Grid Electricity Distribution, Connected Data portal (primary and distribution substations, sign-in datasets under its Shared licence, whose terms are to be read before any paid use; its South Wales licence area: North Wales is SP Energy Networks, whose data is not open). Primary substations checked against NRW's flood extents in FloodRadar's copy (a point inside, not the site's own defences). Distribution substations: 40,456 of 40,642 placed (by position, else grid reference); pole-mounted ones are out in the wind and ice. "Not open": SP Energy Networks' area, whose data is not published openly.
Critical sites in NRW's flood extents
| Council | Railway stations | in medium or high flood risk now | in Flood Zone 3 with climate change | Hospitals | in medium or high flood risk now | in Flood Zone 3 with climate change | GP sites | in medium or high flood risk now | in Flood Zone 3 with climate change | Schools | in medium or high flood risk now | in Flood Zone 3 with climate change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 18 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 6 | 108 | 4 | 10 |
Railway stations (NaPTAN), hospitals (NHS Wales), GP main and branch sites (Digital Health and Care Wales) and schools (Welsh Government), each a point checked against NRW's flood extents in FloodRadar's copy: rivers and the sea at medium or high risk now, and Flood Zone 3 with climate change. A point inside the extent, not the site's own defences or floor level; a council with any site not known shows no count, never none at risk. The map's layer draws them.
Environment
| Council | Tree canopy (% of land) | SSSIs | SSSI features assessed: favourable / unfavourable / destroyed | condition unknown | Special Areas of Conservation | Special Protection Areas | Ancient woodland parcels |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthenshire | 22.6% | – | 21 / 90 / 2 | 147 | – | – | – |
Natural Resources Wales (DataMapWales): sites touching each council's outline, so a site across two councils counts in both. Tree canopy: the Welsh Government's trees outside woodland map with the National Forest Inventory's woodland, each council's exact share of its land (Wales 18.5%); by small area the map reads the canopy within 500 m of the area's centre. SSSI condition: NRW's Protected Sites Baseline Assessment (2020), indicative feature condition by expert opinion with about half the features unknown, each SSSI counted in the council holding its centre (968 of 1,014 placed sites assessed); Contains Natural Resources Wales information © Natural Resources Wales and Database Right. All rights reserved. Reuse of the public file under OGL is to be confirmed with NRW. Background NO2 (Defra's modelled grid) and road noise (Welsh Government) by small area are on the map.
The 20 small areas at most climate risk, now (2001-2020 climate, present flood risk) i
| Small area | Council | Climate risk | Exposure | Vulnerability | Low adaptive capacity | WIMD rank | Aged 75+ | Bad health | No car | Minutes to a GP | Postcodes at flood risk | Coal tips (weighted) | Overflow spills 2025 | Days over 30°C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felinfoel W01000655 | Carmarthenshire | 61.9 | 46.0 | 75.4 | 68.5 | 257 | 8.9% | 9.8% | 22.7% | 61.5 | 26.5% | 0.0 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Saron 2 W01000725 | Carmarthenshire | 60.3 | 44.4 | 72.8 | 67.8 | 931 | 15.4% | 12.4% | 17.3% | 46.9 | 8.3% | 0.0 | 228 | 1.0 |
| Llandybie 2 W01000681 | Carmarthenshire | 58.9 | 42.7 | 63.1 | 75.9 | 539 | 10.7% | 9.0% | 18.5% | 153.3 | 11.7% | 0.0 | 96 | 1.0 |
| Ammanford 1 W01000625 | Carmarthenshire | 58.4 | 41.6 | 72.5 | 65.9 | 301 | 10.8% | 9.9% | 25.1% | 35.2 | 3.8% | 0.0 | 226 | 1.0 |
| Laugharne Township 1 W01000672 | Carmarthenshire | 58.1 | 43.8 | 58.1 | 76.9 | 501 | 11.5% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 157.0 | 7.2% | 0.0 | 354 | 1.0 |
| Llangeler 1 W01000688 | Carmarthenshire | 56.4 | 33.9 | 68.0 | 77.9 | 448 | 11.9% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 144.6 | 1.4% | 0.0 | 424 | 1.0 |
| St Ishmael 2 W01000723 | Carmarthenshire | 56.0 | 43.0 | 57.2 | 71.3 | 872 | 14.6% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 145.8 | 8.5% | 0.0 | 165 | 1.0 |
| Glanamman 1 W01000657 | Carmarthenshire | 54.0 | 33.0 | 69.9 | 68.2 | 496 | 10.6% | 9.3% | 19.6% | 33.9 | 3.1% | 0.0 | 105 | 1.0 |
| Laugharne Township 2 W01000673 | Carmarthenshire | 53.6 | 44.4 | 55.1 | 62.8 | 821 | 11.5% | 6.7% | 13.4% | 35.8 | 17.7% | 0.0 | 117 | 1.0 |
| Llandovery 1 W01000678 | Carmarthenshire | 53.1 | 30.5 | 67.5 | 72.6 | 759 | 17.2% | 7.6% | 13.0% | 94.2 | 3.2% | 0.0 | 48 | 1.0 |
| Carmarthen Town South 2 W01000642 | Carmarthenshire | 52.8 | 43.7 | 51.3 | 65.8 | 1,347 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 16.9% | 66.2 | 4.7% | 0.0 | 128 | 2.0 |
| Burry Port 2 W01000633 | Carmarthenshire | 52.6 | 39.5 | 76.2 | 48.3 | 491 | 14.3% | 11.6% | 26.6% | 18.1 | 10.0% | 0.0 | 28 | 1.0 |
| Pontyberem 2 W01000717 | Carmarthenshire | 52.6 | 35.9 | 57.1 | 70.8 | 685 | 9.2% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 55.1 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 161 | 1.0 |
| Llangunnor 1 W01000693 | Carmarthenshire | 52.5 | 31.2 | 63.7 | 72.7 | 834 | 16.0% | 6.5% | 20.9% | 56.6 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 105 | 2.0 |
| Glanymor 4 W01001924 | Carmarthenshire | 52.4 | 35.5 | 83.6 | 48.4 | 93 | 8.0% | 12.6% | 34.6% | 17.9 | 4.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Lliedi 3 W01000705 | Carmarthenshire | 52.3 | 37.9 | 70.1 | 53.8 | 408 | 9.2% | 9.0% | 23.1% | 32.8 | 4.3% | 0.0 | 1 | 2.0 |
| Llanfihangel-ar-Arth 1 W01000685 | Carmarthenshire | 51.5 | 35.1 | 52.1 | 74.7 | 564 | 9.8% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 139.8 | 3.3% | 0.0 | 187 | 1.0 |
| Cenarth W01000646 | Carmarthenshire | 51.3 | 29.6 | 60.3 | 75.7 | 558 | 14.2% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 97.7 | 1.8% | 0.0 | 283 | 1.0 |
| Bigyn 4 W01000631 | Carmarthenshire | 50.9 | 26.2 | 79.1 | 63.7 | 117 | 6.8% | 12.1% | 32.7% | 51.8 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 21 | 2.0 |
| Pembrey 2 W01000711 | Carmarthenshire | 50.9 | 23.8 | 74.7 | 74.1 | 340 | 10.4% | 12.3% | 19.5% | 44.1 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 121 | 1.0 |
See a street in 3D with its flood maps, coal tips and LiDAR: Tylorstown (CF43 3AA).
National Grid Electricity Distribution (substations). Welsh Government (all of Wales): WIMD 2025, disease registers, care services (StatsWales), fuel poverty by council (2016, DataMapWales), disused coal tips (March 2026); ONS Census 2021 (Nomis); Digital Health and Care Wales GP sites (DataMapWales); FloodRadar's copy of Natural Resources Wales's gauges, warnings and Welsh Water's overflow returns; OpenStreetMap pharmacies (ODbL). Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right. Met Office Weather Warnings © Crown Copyright, as kept by FloodRadar. Built 2026-11-07T23:25 UTC; each source kept as long as it lasts (a year for the census, WIMD and boundaries, a month for registers and sites, a day for the dashboard). The England dashboard: /climate/england.